Our Impact

The numbers behind the hope.

This page sets out what daily, family-based, Christ-centred care changes for the most at-risk children in sub-Saharan Africa — the outcomes, the figures behind them, and how each one is arrived at.

Among the girls in our care, teen pregnancy has all but disappeared.

Based on national rates for girls of this age, in these communities, we would have expected around 630 teen pregnancies among the girls Christ's Hope cares for. The actual number recorded at our CarePoints is 15.

Statistically expected

~630

Actually recorded

15

98%

fewer teen pregnancies than expected

These are not girls who were already safe. They are the highest-risk girls in their nations — orphaned or vulnerable children, in informal settlements and communities living with deep poverty, exactly where the expected rates are highest. If anything, the expected number above understates the risk they carried. The outcome is still this.

What a prevented pregnancy prevents.

A teenage pregnancy in these communities is rarely one event. It usually means the end of school. It sharply raises the risk of an unsafe abortion, of dying in childbirth, and of the kind of desperation traffickers exploit. So when hundreds of expected pregnancies don't happen, other things don't happen either.

We estimate that around 154 unsafe abortions have been prevented among the girls in our care. We say "around" deliberately: a prevented tragedy can't be counted directly, only estimated — this figure is built from regional health data on how teenage pregnancies in these communities typically end. What can be counted is the girls themselves: alive, safe, and still in school.

How we arrive at these numbers.

The expected number is a model.

We take published national adolescent-pregnancy rates and apply them to the girls in our care — country by country, over the years each girl has been with us. It answers one question: statistically, what should have happened to these girls?

The actual number is a count.

Our CarePoints are run by local staff who know every child by name — daily contact, not annual surveys. The recorded number comes from their records, not an extrapolation.

Estimates are labelled as estimates.

Where a figure is derived — like unsafe abortions prevented — we say so, and say "around". We would rather be plainly honest than impressively precise.

One more thing, because honesty is the whole point of this page: the strongest programmes in the published research typically report 30–40% reductions in teen pregnancy. Ours is far beyond that. We know a figure like this invites scrutiny — we welcome it. If you're a funder, a church leader, or a researcher and you'd like to see how these numbers are built, ask us and we'll walk you through the data.

Behind every number, a child someone knows by name.

2,121

children in daily care

46

CarePoints, locally run

7

African nations

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