The numbers behind the hope.
This page sets out what regular, family-based, Christ-centred care changes for the most at-risk children in sub-Saharan Africa — the outcomes, the figures behind them, and how each one is arrived at.
Among the girls in our care, teen pregnancy has all but disappeared.
Based on the rates measured for girls from the poorest households in the countries we work in, over four years we would have expected around 175 teen pregnancies among the girls Christ's Hope cares for. The number recorded at our CarePoints is 14.
These are not girls who were already safe. They are the highest-risk girls in their nations — orphaned or vulnerable children from households in deep poverty, which is where the measured rates are highest. That is the comparison we use, and the outcome is still this.
What a prevented pregnancy prevents.
A teenage pregnancy in these communities is rarely one event. It usually means the end of school. It sharply raises the risk of an unsafe abortion, of dying in childbirth, and of the kind of desperation traffickers exploit. So when most of the expected pregnancies don't happen, other things don't happen either.
We estimate that around 40 unsafe abortions have been prevented among the girls in our care. We say "around" deliberately: a prevented tragedy can't be counted directly, only estimated — this figure is built from regional health data on how teenage pregnancies in these communities typically end. What can be counted is the girls themselves: alive, safe, and still in school.
How we arrive at these numbers.
The expected number is a model.
We take the adolescent birth rates measured by each country's national health survey for the poorest fifth of households, convert births to pregnancies using published figures on how teenage pregnancies end, and apply them to the girls in our care — country by country, over the years each girl has been with us, from age twelve. It answers one question: statistically, what should have happened to these girls?
The actual number is a count.
Our CarePoints are run by local staff who know every child by name — contact several times a week, not annual surveys. The recorded number covers four years across all seven countries and comes from their records, not an extrapolation.
Estimates are labelled as estimates.
Where a figure is derived — like unsafe abortions prevented — we say so, and say "around". We would rather be plainly honest than impressively precise.
One more thing, because honesty is the whole point of this page: the strongest programmes in the published research typically report 30–40% reductions in teen pregnancy. Ours is far beyond that. We know a figure like this invites scrutiny — we welcome it. If you're a funder, a church leader, or a researcher and you'd like to see how these numbers are built, ask us and we'll walk you through the data.